🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."